Blijft de euro, komt de drachme of wordt het yuan ??
Gesprekken over terugkeer Drachme verdringen WK voetbal naar de tweede plaats !
The rumours are hot and heavy, fuelled by gossip mongers who are offering two scenarios, both with the same ending: Greece and the euro will not live happily ever after, and this country will soon return to its old currency, the anaemic drachma.
Depending on who you talk to, Greece will either be banished from the EU, or the entire EU will collapse. In either case, in the immortal words of Neil Diamond, it’s Hello Again to the drachma.
In fact, the topic is so hot it has replaced the World Cup as the number one subject in kafenions throughout Crete, and there is much knuckle-banging to emphasize lines like: “the mint in Athens is working around the clock” and “the Chinese Yuan will replace the euro.”
In an effort to determine the validity of these stories, these reporters had a cup of coffee with Kostas Vasiliadis, a bank executive, in a kafenion near his home in Gournes.
“All that is propaganda,” he declared. “In talking about the Greek economic recession, there is no way that Greece will come out from the euro. The people involved in lending Greece the money (EU and International Monetary Fund) to pay off its debt have a sense of what is to come and wouldn’t lend to a doomed country. Even if there was a one in a million chance that Greece would go bankrupt, they wouldn’t chance losing more money.”
According to Mr. Vasiliadis, the latest published statistics (checked and confirmed by EU and IMF), the measures in Greece are already producing positive results and the second loan installment for September has been secured.
“The public deficit (not the public debt) decreased to 9.8 billion euros in the first six-month period of 2010 from 14.9 during the same period in 2009,” he told us. “Therefore, in the first place, we have savings of about five billion euros. And second, we export more things now than what we import because the suppliers abroad want cash, which, at the moment is low, so we are forced to limit ourselves to things we produce here.”
The banker was emphatic in stating: “The austerity measures are beginning to work. At this stage, we, the citizens, are the only ones that can hurt Greece and that’s only if we panic. And, fortunately, most people trust the banking system. Very few people have withdrawn their money from the banks fearing the return of the drachma, the depreciation of the drachma or the devaluation of their money.”
Mr. Vasiliadis added: "Yes, there is an economic war taking place at this time and certain interests are served by it. But let’s not be carried away, let’s turn off our televisions, take care of our businesses and we will most certainly come out from this recession even stronger. What I want to stress is for all of us to focus on our business and prove that our country truly deserves to be perceived and treated better by other member states. It’s time for politicians and people to work together!”
In regard to the second scenario, the one where the entire EU crumbles like week-old bread, the economist had this to say:
“If for any reason the European Union is dissolved, not just Europe but the entire world will be in turmoil. It has often been said that Greece, which as a percentage in the world economy is infinitely small, would rock the world economy if it goes broke. You can imagine if an entire EU hits bottom.”
Mr. Vasiliadis emphasized that, in his opinion, the EU will not dissolve for the reason that, because of Greece, the European Monetary Fund has been introduced, which will constitute a safety valve for the European currency.
Meanwhile, what will happen if the worst-case scenario becomes a reality?
According to a local accountant, right off the bat we will become 30-40 percent poorer than what we would have been after the austerity measures do their job. For example, when the euro went into effect nearly 10 years ago the exchange rate was 340.75 drachmas per euro. Based on that rate, if you now have 5,000 euros in the bank, that would come to 1.703 million drachmas.
But, wait a minute!
With a simultaneous depreciation of the currency of 50 percent, which is an optimistic figure, your 1.703 million drachmas now becomes 850,000 -- half your initial money. Again, it’s an optimistic view since we don’t know how the drachma will be accepted by other countries.
In all probability, a period of galloping inflation will follow, while the value of our bank deposits would be erased with a stroke of the pen, and we might as well forget about super cars, HD televisions, fast PCs, cheap internet and any other imports. Fuel, unfortunately, belongs in this category.
As an epilogue to this story, Mr. Vasiliadis offered these observations:
“We have reached this point due to our own bad management and no one else is to blame. But, our country has been given the chance to change direction. Some people should go to prison for stealing; others should pay back what they stole; certain fortunes can be confiscated to profit the state. I believe that now we are at the bottom of the crisis and that in one year, following a correct course and with political will, we will begin to see certain positive results. Moreover I foresee that Greece, coming out from the crisis, will become economically attractive.”
Bron: Ko Go |
